dcf-model

SKILL.md preview

---
name: dcf-model
description: Build institutional-quality DCF valuation models in Excel — revenue projections, FCF build, WACC, terminal value, Bear/Base/Bull scenarios, 5x5 sensitivity tables. Pairs with excel-author. Use for intrinsic-value equity analysis.
version: 1.0.0
author: Anthropic (adapted by Nous Research)
license: Apache-2.0
platforms: [linux, macos, windows]
metadata:
  hermes:
    tags: [finance, valuation, dcf, excel, openpyxl, modeling, investment-banking]
    related_skills: [excel-author, pptx-author, comps-analysis, lbo-model, 3-statement-model]
---

## Environment

This skill assumes **headless openpyxl** — you are producing an .xlsx file on disk.
Follow the `excel-author` skill's conventions for cell coloring, formulas, named ranges, and sensitivity tables.
Recalculate before delivery: `python /path/to/excel-author/scripts/recalc.py ./out/model.xlsx`.

# DCF Model Builder

## Overview

This skill creates institutional-quality DCF models for equity valuation following investment banking standards. Each analysis produces a detailed Excel model (with sensitivity analysis included at the bottom of the DCF sheet).

## Tools

- Default to using all of the information provided by the user and MCP servers available for data sourcing.

## Critical Constraints - Read These First

These constraints apply throughout all DCF model building. Review before starting:

**Formulas Over Hardcodes (NON-NEGOTIABLE):**
- Every projection, margin, discount factor, PV, and sensitivity cell MUST be a live Excel formula — never a value computed in Python and written as a number
- When using openpyxl: `ws["D20"] = "=D19*(1+$B$8)"` is correct; `ws["D20"] = calculated_revenue` is WRONG
- The only hardcoded numbers permitted are: (1) raw historical inputs, (2) assumption drivers (growth rates, WACC inputs, terminal g), (3) current market data (share price, debt balance)
- If you catch yourself computing something in Python and writing the result — STOP. The model must flex when the user changes an assumption.

**Verify Step-by-Step With the User (DO NOT build end-to-end):**
- After data retrieval → show the user the raw inputs block (revenue, margins, shares, net debt) and confirm before projecting
- After revenue projections → show the projected top line and growth rates, confirm before building margin build
- After FCF build → show the full FCF schedule, confirm logic before computing WACC
- After WACC → show the calculation and inputs, confirm before discounting
- After terminal value + PV → show the equity bridge (EV → equity value → per share), confirm before sensitivity tables
- Catch errors at each stage — a wrong margin assumption discovered after sensitivity tables are built means rebuilding everything downstream

**Sensitivity Tables:**
- **Use an ODD number of rows and columns** (standard: 5×5, sometimes 7×7) — this guarantees a true center cell
- **Center cell = base case.** Build the axis values so the middle row header and middle column header exactly equal the model's actual assumptions (e.g., if base WACC = 9.0%, the middle row is 9.0%; if terminal g = 3.0%, the middle column is 3.0%). The center cell's output must therefore equal the model's actual implied share price — this is the sanity check that the table is built correctly.
- **Highlight the center cell** with the medium-blue fill (`#BDD7EE`) + bold font so it's immediately visible which cell is the base case.
- Populate ALL cells (typically 3 tables × 25 cells = 75) with full DCF recalculation formulas
- Use openpyxl loops to write formulas programmatically
- NO placeholder text, NO linear approximations, NO manual steps required
- Each cell must recalculate full DCF for that assumption combination

**Cell Comments:**
- Add cell comments AS each hardcoded value is created
- Format: "Source: [System/Document], [Date], [Reference], [URL if applicable]"
- Every blue input must have a comment before moving to next section
- Do not defer to end or write "TODO: add

…